Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.591038 1.804221 2.031476 2.291332 2.579798 2.889754 3.247544
2024-12-15 1.359045 1.662040 2.006136 2.424141 2.916396 3.475792 4.157624
2024-12-22 1.146635 1.507087 1.941657 2.500117 3.194253 4.023821 5.084939
2024-12-29 1.017861 1.433094 1.962812 2.680124 3.616906 4.788578 6.353153
2025-01-05 0.841251 1.271481 1.852929 2.682844 3.821118 5.309549 7.381398
2025-01-12 0.711479 1.152639 1.783144 2.729463 4.088661 5.940938 8.619511
2025-01-19 0.594702 1.033019 1.695270 2.739418 4.307502 6.530414 9.862906
2025-01-26 0.523707 0.971145 1.682983 2.857087 4.692844 7.388557 11.560780
2025-02-02 0.457438 0.905304 1.655023 2.947099 5.047132 8.236081 13.322344
2025-02-09 0.393767 0.832162 1.604289 2.993839 5.339205 9.017762 15.056069
2025-02-16 0.341630 0.770019 1.562719 3.049790 5.651309 9.857516 16.949470
2025-02-23 0.283469 0.684285 1.465589 2.996025 5.773955 10.406673 18.432317
2025-03-02 0.229120 0.596454 1.354221 2.909076 5.843937 10.900274 19.910723
2025-03-09 0.195175 0.545155 1.305841 2.934047 6.117464 11.763401 22.078924
2025-03-16 0.162830 0.489484 1.238774 2.913100 6.304824 12.496839 24.093469
2025-03-23 0.145339 0.466188 1.237623 3.026639 6.762098 13.750857 27.114918
2025-03-30 0.118781 0.411566 1.155566 2.957009 6.851667 14.344805 29.015209
2025-04-06 0.100208 0.373609 1.105360 2.949370 7.065330 15.188001 31.433127
2025-04-13 0.083395 0.335446 1.046845 2.913468 7.215118 15.921080 33.702371
2025-04-20 0.074248 0.318710 1.040402 2.999141 7.634200 17.211715 37.112280
2025-04-27 0.065406 0.300105 1.025287 3.061450 8.008438 18.442571 40.492965
2025-05-04 0.056513 0.278146 0.996216 3.084123 8.295234 19.517786 43.642763
2025-05-11 0.049267 0.259750 0.973765 3.120644 8.617884 20.691933 47.067404